Poland has retained its proposed €123 billion allocation under the European Union’s next long-term budget, despite an Irish presidency proposal to reduce overall EU spending by €141 billion. But while the country’s nationally allocated funds have been protected, substantial reductions to research, infrastructure and competitiveness programmes could still affect investment opportunities for Polish businesses between 2028 and 2034.
The revised budget, presented on Saturday, 10 October, would reduce the European Commission’s original seven-year spending proposal by approximately 8%.
Poland’s deputy foreign minister responsible for European affairs, Ignacy Niemczycki, confirmed that the country’s national funding allocation remained unchanged.
Speaking to RMF FM about the revised proposal, Niemczycki welcomed the preservation of Poland’s funding but warned that a smaller overall budget could undermine the EU’s economic and strategic ambitions.
For Polish businesses, the distinction matters. The money allocated to Poland through national and regional programmes is only one part of the EU funding system. Companies, universities and research organisations also compete for grants and investment support from European programmes that are now facing reductions.
Where the €141 billion in cuts would fall
The Irish presidency’s official negotiating document proposes an EU budget of €1.622 trillion for 2028–2034, compared with the Commission’s original €1.763 trillion proposal.
Both figures are expressed in constant 2025 prices, allowing a direct comparison without the effects of projected inflation.
In current prices, the revised budget would total approximately €1.826 trillion, down from €1.985 trillion.
The reductions are not distributed evenly across EU spending programmes.
| Spending area | Commission | Irish plan | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cohesion, agriculture and related spending | €946.4bn | €914.2bn | −3.4% |
| Competitiveness, research and security | €522.2bn | €455.6bn | −12.8% |
| Global Europe | €190.0bn | €156.9bn | −17.4% |
| Administration | €104.4bn | €95.3bn | −8.8% |
The biggest percentage reduction falls on Global Europe, the EU’s external cooperation and assistance heading, while programmes supporting competitiveness, research and security face a reduction of nearly 13%.
Traditional agricultural and regional spending is comparatively protected, although the wider budget heading covering these activities would still shrink by around 3.4%.
What Poland’s €123 billion actually covers
Poland’s proposed national allocation stands at approximately €123.3 billion in current prices, making it the largest national funding envelope under the proposed 2028–2034 budget.
The Polish Ministry of Development Funds and Regional Policy confirmed the size of the allocation earlier this year, when it began work on the country’s next investment and reform programme.
The figure is substantial, but it is not a single pool of money available for business grants or infrastructure contracts.
Under the proposed framework, several funding areas that were previously administered separately would be brought together through a National and Regional Partnership Plan.
These include regional development, agricultural support, fisheries, the Social Climate Fund, migration and border management, and certain security-related priorities.
This means the €123 billion should not be compared directly with the cohesion-policy allocations from previous EU budget periods.
Some spending previously classified under separate programmes would now fall within the same national envelope.
The Irish presidency has preserved the proposed national allocations, according to Niemczycki, while reducing funding elsewhere.
For businesses, the practical value of Poland’s allocation will depend on how the final money is divided between programmes, the types of investment supported and the conditions attached to funding.
Regional investment remains a major opportunity
Regional development is likely to remain one of the largest sources of EU-backed investment activity in Poland.
In July, Poland’s development funds ministry outlined plans to allocate approximately €79.6 billion to cohesion policy, including investment in energy transition and economic competitiveness.
Deputy minister Jan Szyszko said that 44% of that amount, approximately €35 billion, would be placed under the direct management of Poland’s regional governments.
The ministry’s July announcement identified healthcare, science and innovation, urban development, housing and energy as priority areas for the country’s proposed partnership plan.
The plan is expected to include 16 regional chapters, one for each Polish voivodeship, or administrative region.
For construction firms, engineering companies, energy contractors and suppliers of public infrastructure, the eventual regional programmes could therefore remain an important source of demand.
However, the latest EU budget negotiations do not amount to confirmed contracts, open grant calls or guaranteed investment projects.
The funding priorities and individual schemes will depend on the final EU budget and Poland’s approved investment plan.
The proposed system would also link the release of EU funds to agreed milestones, targets or outputs, making programme design and implementation important for the timing of expenditure.
Research and innovation face a smaller EU funding pool
The most significant change for companies seeking EU-wide support concerns research and competitiveness funding.
Under the Irish proposal, spending within the EU’s competitiveness, prosperity and security heading would fall from €522.2 billion to €455.6 billion in constant 2025 prices.
The European Competitiveness Fund, designed to support strategic industries and emerging technologies, would also receive a smaller allocation.
The proposed fund would consolidate existing EU investment instruments, with support focused on areas including digital technologies, industrial decarbonisation, healthcare, biotechnology, defence and space.
Horizon Europe, the EU’s principal research and innovation programme, would be reduced from approximately €154.9 billion to €140 billion in constant 2025 prices.
That is a reduction of almost €15 billion.
For Polish research institutions and businesses involved in international research partnerships, this would mean a smaller proposed EU-wide funding envelope than originally envisaged.
Horizon Europe funding is allocated through competitive programmes rather than guaranteed national allocations.
Consequently, protecting Poland’s national budget does not protect Polish applicants from changes to the overall resources available through Horizon Europe.
The same distinction applies to businesses seeking support for the development, commercialisation or deployment of advanced technologies.
A smaller European programme does not automatically mean that a particular Polish project will lose funding. But it changes the scale of resources that could ultimately be available to applicants across the EU.
The Council’s negotiating position on the European Competitiveness Fund also envisages measures to improve participation by smaller companies and closer coordination between EU funding instruments. Those arrangements remain subject to the wider legislative negotiations.
Transport and energy infrastructure also face reductions
Another important change concerns the Connecting Europe Facility, which supports cross-border transport and energy infrastructure.
The revised negotiating document reduces the proposed transport allocation from approximately €45.8 billion to €40.6 billion in constant 2025 prices.
The energy allocation would fall from approximately €26.5 billion to €21.3 billion.
These reductions could be relevant to companies involved in cross-border railways, transport infrastructure, electricity networks and energy interconnections.
Poland’s geographical position makes European transport and energy connectivity particularly important for its economy.
However, the Connecting Europe Facility is a separate EU funding instrument. Its proposed budget cannot be treated as part of Poland’s guaranteed national allocation.
The final effect on Polish projects will depend on eligibility rules, future calls for proposals, competing applications and the projects selected for financing.
The negotiating document also proposes co-financing rates for different categories of transport and energy investment, which could influence how much national or private funding project promoters must secure.
Poland’s concerns over emissions-trading revenues
Poland’s government has also raised concerns about proposed changes to the way the EU finances its budget.
The revised plan retains a proposal to direct 30% of certain revenues from the EU Emissions Trading System, or ETS, towards the common EU budget.
ETS revenues are generated through the carbon-emissions allowance system, which affects power generation and other emissions-intensive sectors.
The Irish proposal includes a phased introduction for countries covered by the EU’s Modernisation Fund, including Poland.
Niemczycki told RMF FM that the arrangement was financially more favourable to Poland than earlier proposals, but that Warsaw remained dissatisfied with the overall approach.
For Poland, the issue concerns the balance between EU-level revenue and funds retained or available at national level.
That could have implications for public financing of energy modernisation, although the final distribution of revenues and its consequences cannot yet be established.
The proposed 30% contribution has not been adopted, and the Irish negotiating text expressly leaves the revenue arrangements open to further discussion.
Why Poland’s national allocation is not yet guaranteed
The revised figures provide a negotiating framework, not a binding financial settlement.
The Irish presidency’s document states that negotiations remain open and that no part of the budget should be treated as agreed until the overall package is settled.
Reaching an agreement is likely to be difficult.
Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands are among the member states seeking tighter control over the size of the next EU budget.
Reporting by RMF FM on the initial reactions indicated that some governments considered the Irish reductions insufficient, raising doubts about whether an agreement could be reached by the end of 2026.
The next political discussion is expected at the European Council meeting on 15–16 October in Brussels.
The EU’s long-term budget requires unanimous agreement among member states in the Council and the consent of the European Parliament. Further legislation will also be needed to establish the funding programmes and revenue arrangements.
For Polish companies, the latest proposal therefore offers two different signals.
The preservation of Poland’s national allocation supports the prospect of continued large-scale investment through regional, agricultural and other domestic programmes.
At the same time, reductions to EU-wide research, competitiveness, transport and energy funds could limit the scale of additional support available through European competitive programmes.
The eventual investment opportunities will depend not simply on how much money Poland is allocated, but on how that money is programmed, when it becomes available and how successfully Polish organisations compete for funding across the wider EU.
