Poland’s central bank has kept interest rates unchanged, leaving the benchmark reference rate at 3.75% as policymakers wait to see whether the latest rise in inflation proves temporary or develops into broader price pressure.
The Monetary Policy Council’s decision after its 6–7 October meeting leaves the National Bank of Poland’s main rate at the level in force since March.
The other official rates also remain unchanged:
- lombard rate: 4.25%;
- deposit rate: 3.25%;
- rediscount rate: 3.80%;
- discount rate: 3.85%.
The decision was widely expected by economists and financial markets.
What has become less certain is what happens next.
September consumer-price inflation accelerated to 4.0% year on year, moving above the upper edge of the National Bank of Poland’s target tolerance range just as the government introduced another package designed to cut fuel prices.
Inflation has moved above the NBP target band
Poland’s inflation target is 2.5%, with a tolerance range of one percentage point in either direction.
That means annual CPI between 1.5% and 3.5% sits within the target band, although the central bank’s objective remains to keep inflation close to 2.5% over the medium term rather than merely anywhere inside that range.
The flash estimate published by Statistics Poland at the end of September showed consumer prices increasing 4.0% from a year earlier and 0.7% from August.
That represented a notable acceleration from annual inflation of 3.4% in August.
Fuel prices were a major reason for the change, meaning the September reading needs to be interpreted differently from an inflation increase driven evenly across goods and services.
For monetary policy, the distinction matters.
A central bank can influence demand, credit growth, investment and wage-price pressures through interest rates. It cannot directly reverse an international oil-price shock.
The MPC nevertheless has to assess whether higher fuel costs begin feeding into transport, production, wages and prices elsewhere in the economy.
Government fuel intervention complicates the picture
The October rate decision also comes just days after Poland introduced another large intervention in the fuel market.
From 3 October, the government’s Ceny Paliwa Niżej programme temporarily reduced VAT on petrol and diesel from 23% to 8%, cut fuel excise duties and introduced maximum retail prices.
The measures are scheduled to remain in force until 31 December 2026.
For 7 October, the Energy Ministry set maximum retail prices of PLN 6.86 per litre for 95-octane petrol, PLN 7.74 for 98-octane petrol and PLN 7.80 for diesel.
Those measures should mechanically reduce the contribution of fuel to headline CPI compared with a scenario in which the government had left taxes and retail prices unchanged.
But they do not necessarily answer the broader monetary-policy question.
A temporary tax reduction can lower measured inflation while it is in force without permanently removing the underlying global energy-price shock.
When temporary measures expire, the comparison can reverse depending on market prices and what tax rates apply at that point.
That is one reason the MPC looks beyond a single monthly headline CPI figure when setting rates.
Rates have been at 3.75% since March
The MPC last changed borrowing costs in March 2026.
At its 3–4 March meeting, the Council cut the reference rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 4.00% to 3.75%.
Since then, it has held the rate steady.
That means October’s decision does not immediately change financing costs for businesses or households.
For borrowers with floating-rate loans, however, the absence of an NBP move does not guarantee that every monthly instalment remains unchanged.
Commercial lending rates depend on the reference rate alongside market benchmarks, bank margins, funding conditions and the way individual loan contracts reset.
For companies, a sustained 3.75% policy rate means the central bank has not delivered another reduction in the underlying cost of money that could eventually flow through to corporate loans and investment financing.
Why 3.75% matters to businesses
The reference rate is one of the central prices in the Polish financial system.
It influences short-term money-market rates and, through them, the cost of borrowing across the economy.
When the MPC cuts rates, bank funding and credit normally become cheaper over time, although the size and timing of the change vary.
Higher rates work in the opposite direction.
They make financing more expensive, which can restrain investment, consumption and credit demand and eventually reduce inflationary pressure.
For businesses, the impact can appear in working-capital facilities, investment loans, property financing and the discount rates applied when deciding whether a new project is commercially worthwhile.
The October hold therefore preserves the financing environment established after March rather than providing additional monetary-policy relief.
The MPC is watching more than headline CPI
The Council’s October communication again emphasised that future decisions will depend on incoming information.
Among the risks it continues to monitor are international commodity prices and inflation, geopolitical developments, Polish fiscal policy, regulated energy-price decisions, domestic economic activity and wage growth.
Those factors can pull policy in different directions.
Higher energy prices can raise inflation while simultaneously weakening household purchasing power and slowing economic activity.
Stronger wages can support consumer demand but may also sustain services inflation if labour costs continue rising faster than productivity.
Government tax and administered-price decisions can temporarily change the headline CPI path without necessarily changing underlying price pressure to the same degree.
The MPC therefore faces a more complicated question than simply whether inflation is above or below 3.5% in one particular month.
Fuel prices could lower October inflation without ending the risk
The latest fuel measures will be particularly important in interpreting the next set of data.
September’s 4.0% CPI estimate covers a month before the new VAT, excise and retail-price intervention began.
October inflation will capture the lower fuel-tax regime.
That makes a slower headline rate possible even if international energy costs remain elevated.
For businesses, the distinction between headline inflation and more persistent underlying inflation matters.
Lower pump prices can directly reduce household transport costs and lower fuel expenditure for companies.
They can also reduce pressure on transport-intensive sectors.
But if wages, services, imported goods or other operating costs continue rising rapidly, lower petrol and diesel prices alone would not establish that inflation has sustainably returned to the NBP target.
No signal that rates are locked for the rest of 2026
The October hold should not be interpreted as a commitment to keep the reference rate at 3.75% for the remainder of the year.
The MPC makes decisions meeting by meeting.
Its next scheduled rate decision is due on 4 November, following the 3–4 November meeting.
By then, policymakers are expected to have a new NBP inflation and GDP projection as well as additional economic data.
The November meeting could therefore provide a more complete assessment of whether September’s acceleration was primarily the result of a temporary fuel shock or whether price pressure is becoming more persistent.
There is currently no MPC decision committing the Council either to another cut or to an increase.
Glapiński press conference comes next
The immediate follow-up will come on 8 October, when NBP Governor and MPC chairman Adam Glapiński is scheduled to hold his post-meeting press conference.
His comments will be watched for how the central bank interprets three issues in particular:
- the rise in September inflation;
- the government’s October fuel-price intervention; and
- the balance between the risk of persistent inflation and weaker economic activity.
The press conference may provide more detail on the MPC’s assessment, but it will not replace the formal month-by-month decision-making process.
Borrowing costs stay where they are — for now
For Polish companies and households, the immediate outcome is straightforward.
There is no October reduction in central-bank interest rates and no October increase.
The benchmark remains 3.75%.
What has changed is the economic environment surrounding that number.
Inflation has moved back above the upper edge of the NBP tolerance range, but much of the latest acceleration is associated with fuel prices just as government measures are beginning to push those prices lower.
That leaves the MPC waiting for evidence about what happens underneath the headline number.
For borrowers and investors, the next significant questions are therefore not about the rate decision just announced, but about whether the fuel shock fades, how underlying inflation develops and what the central bank’s November projection says about the path into 2027.
