Fitch has raised its forecast for Poland’s economic growth after stronger-than-expected investment and second-quarter activity showed the economy coping better with external pressures than the agency previously assumed.
The ratings agency now expects Polish real GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2026, up from the 3.3% forecast it issued in June.
Growth in 2027 is now expected at 3.0%, compared with the previous 2.9% forecast, followed by growth of 3.1% in 2028.
The upgrade comes as Fitch’s September Global Economic Outlook also presents a slightly stronger global picture, with the agency raising its 2026 world-growth forecast and describing eurozone activity as more resilient than previously expected.
For Poland, stronger domestic investment and an improving outlook for Germany and the wider eurozone have helped offset some of the concerns that led Fitch to cut its Polish forecast earlier in the year.
Poland’s second quarter was stronger than expected
The revision follows a strong second quarter for the Polish economy.
Statistics Poland’s latest estimate shows that GDP grew by 3.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating from 3.5% in the first quarter.
After seasonal adjustment, the economy expanded by 1.0% compared with the previous quarter and by 3.8% compared with a year earlier.
Investment was particularly strong.
Gross fixed capital formation increased by 8.4% year on year, compared with growth of just 2.4% in the first quarter.
Exports also rose strongly, increasing by 10.8% year on year, while imports grew by 10.4%.
That combination of stronger capital spending and a better external environment is central to Fitch’s improved assessment.
Investment becomes the main growth engine
Fitch now expects investment to grow by 6.2% in 2026, followed by 4.5% in 2027 and 3.6% in 2028.
Much of the near-term acceleration is associated with expenditure financed through Poland’s National Recovery Plan, or KPO, and other European Union funds.
Poland is approaching the final stages of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility spending cycle, encouraging both public and private investment projects to accelerate.
That helps explain why growth remains relatively strong despite slower household-consumption growth and higher energy costs.
The agency expects private consumption to rise by around 3% in both 2026 and 2027.
Credit growth and a still-tight labour market continue to support household spending, although employment and real-wage indicators have shown some signs of cooling.
The investment-heavy composition is significant for businesses because capital expenditure creates demand across construction, infrastructure, machinery, technology and professional services while potentially expanding the economy’s productive capacity.
The June downgrade has effectively been partly reversed
Fitch’s forecast has moved considerably during 2026.
In March, the agency raised its Polish growth forecast to 3.6%.
It then cut the forecast to 3.3% in June after weaker early-year GDP results and concerns about external demand, including the outlook for the eurozone.
The new 3.5% forecast restores most of that reduction.
The change reflects both stronger Polish data and a somewhat better European outlook.
Germany is particularly important because it remains one of Poland’s largest trading partners and an important customer for Polish industrial and manufacturing companies.
A stronger German and eurozone economy can therefore support Polish exports, production and business investment.
Fitch is now close to the European Commission forecast
The new forecast also puts Fitch broadly in line with several other major institutions.
The European Commission currently expects Polish GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2026, before slowing to 2.8% in 2027.
The Polish government’s spring macroeconomic assumptions were somewhat stronger, projecting growth of 3.6% this year and 3.1% in 2027.
Moody’s, which reviewed Poland earlier in September, expects growth of 3.7% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
The forecasts differ in detail but broadly point to the same underlying picture: Poland remains one of the faster-growing large European economies, while growth is expected to moderate as the current wave of EU-financed investment begins to fade.
Inflation still limits scope for lower interest rates
Fitch has simultaneously raised its near-term inflation expectations.
The agency now expects consumer inflation to be around 3.7% at the end of 2026, followed by 3.0% at the end of 2027 and 2.7% in 2028.
That is higher for this year than Fitch expected in its June forecast.
Energy-market volatility and continuing price pressure in services are among the factors keeping inflation above the National Bank of Poland’s 2.5% target midpoint.
Fitch therefore does not expect another interest-rate cut before the end of 2026.
Its forecast assumes the National Bank of Poland reference rate remains at 3.75% through the end of this year before one 25-basis-point cut takes it to 3.5% in 2027.
For companies and households, that means stronger economic growth does not automatically translate into a rapid fall in borrowing costs.
Faster growth does not remove Poland’s fiscal problem
The stronger GDP outlook also needs to be separated from Fitch’s assessment of Poland’s public finances.
When the agency reviewed Poland’s sovereign rating in August, it maintained the country’s long-term rating at A- with a negative outlook.
Fitch said Poland benefits from a large and diversified economy, EU membership, credible monetary policy and a relatively strong external position.
Its main concerns instead remain the size of the government deficit and the trajectory of public debt.
The agency currently expects the general-government deficit to remain around 6.7% of GDP in 2027 and approximately 6.1% in 2028.
Gross general-government debt is forecast to rise from 59.7% of GDP in 2025 to around 72.7% by 2028.
Those figures use the European general-government definition and therefore should not be confused with Poland’s narrower domestic measure of state public debt.
A stronger economy can make the debt burden easier to manage by increasing tax revenue and the size of GDP.
However, faster GDP growth alone does not eliminate persistent fiscal deficits.
Poland remains vulnerable to external shocks
Fitch’s brighter growth forecast also comes with external risks.
Energy prices remain unusually volatile, while renewed geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices higher during September.
The agency’s global outlook assumes some de-escalation later in the year, but Fitch notes that energy prices could have broader second-round effects on inflation if elevated prices persist.
That matters particularly for Poland because higher fuel and energy costs can feed into household spending, industrial costs and transport.
The outlook for Germany and the eurozone remains another important variable.
Fitch’s upgraded Polish forecast partly reflects better European activity, meaning another deterioration in external demand would also weaken one of the reasons behind the upgrade.
What the forecast means for Polish businesses
For businesses, the most important feature of the new forecast is not the two-tenths-of-a-percentage-point headline revision by itself.
It is the composition of the growth.
Investment is increasingly replacing consumer spending as the main source of additional momentum.
Companies exposed to infrastructure, construction, engineering, technology, energy, defence and EU-funded projects are therefore operating in a relatively supportive investment environment.
Exporters also benefit if the improvement Fitch sees in Germany and the wider eurozone continues.
At the same time, companies still face comparatively high borrowing costs, elevated energy uncertainty and the prospect of fiscal consolidation later in the forecast period.
Fitch’s latest numbers therefore describe an economy that is growing faster than it expected three months ago, but not one in which the major medium-term risks have disappeared.
