The Monetary Policy Council kept the reference rate of Narodowy Bank Polski (National Bank of Poland) at 3.75 per cent during its meeting on 8–9 September 2026. The decision followed an increase in annual consumer price inflation to 3.4 per cent in August, from 3.0 per cent in July.
The council, commonly abbreviated as MPC, also maintained the deposit rate at 3.25 per cent and the lombard rate at 4.25 per cent. The latter applies to a central bank lending facility rather than directly setting the interest rate charged on household or business loans.
September was at least the fifth consecutive meeting at which the council left rates unchanged. The last adjustment was a reduction of 25 basis points in March 2026, leaving the reference rate at its lowest level since 2022.
A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. The March reduction therefore lowered the reference rate by 0.25 percentage points.
The latest inflation reading helps explain the council’s preference for stability. Poland’s consumer price index, or CPI, was 3.4 per cent higher in August than a year earlier, according to a flash estimate from Statistics Poland and commentary reported by NBP.
Inflation accelerated from 3.0 per cent in July, with higher fuel prices identified as the main cause. The August figure remained within NBP’s inflation target of 2.5 per cent, allowing for a tolerance range of one percentage point in either direction, but it was close to the top of that range.
This reduces the immediate case for further rate cuts, although the council’s future decisions will depend on subsequent economic data. Commentary from banks and analysts indicates that earlier expectations of imminent reductions have been reconsidered.
Several forecasters cited in the supplied material now expect the reference rate to remain unchanged until the end of 2026. Some consider that the pause could last until the middle of 2027 because of higher energy prices and renewed geopolitical risks.
These are analyst expectations rather than commitments from the MPC. The September decision does not establish a fixed timetable for the next change in rates.
Poland’s wider economy continued to expand. Revised data indicate that gross domestic product grew by approximately 3.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2026.
Investment growth accelerated during the quarter, while consumption growth slowed as wage increases moderated. That combination gives policymakers evidence of continuing economic expansion without removing concerns about renewed inflationary pressure.
For companies, an unchanged reference rate provides a more stable basis for near-term financing decisions. It does not mean that every corporate loan carries the same rate, as pricing also depends on the agreement with the lender and the borrower’s circumstances.
The decision is particularly relevant to businesses considering investment in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Tricity and Poznań. If policy rates remain unchanged, financing costs are less likely to receive immediate support from monetary easing, although individual companies’ borrowing conditions may still change.
The implications for households are similar. Variable-rate loan instalments linked to WIBOR, the Warsaw Interbank Offered Rate, are unlikely to fall substantially in the near term according to some of the cited analysis.
WIBOR is a benchmark used in the pricing of some Polish złoty loans. Its movements are influenced by market expectations as well as the current NBP rate, so an unchanged reference rate does not guarantee that every instalment or lending offer will remain identical.
Deposit returns may also remain broadly stable, although banks set their own retail rates. For employees entering salary negotiations, the rise in annual inflation provides relevant context, but the CPI figure does not determine individual pay awards.
The September hold therefore reflects a balance between two signals: economic growth remains relatively firm, while inflation has moved closer to the upper edge of NBP’s target range. For the moment, the council has chosen to leave borrowing conditions unchanged rather than respond immediately to either development.
